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John Lewis Welwyn, Partners with Ashtons

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East of England reports 10% increase over the last 12 months

As we enter 2024 the New Year property market has started strongly. The previous year was one of the most challenging markets we have seen since the financial crisis of 2008/9. The market faced a perfect storm of uncertainty. The cost of living crisis created by rapidly rising inflation in the first half of the year resulted in a rapid rise in the base rate of interest by the Bank of England. Economic growth through the year was sluggish at best. Thankfully the housing market began to stabilise in the last quarter of the year as the cycle of interest rate rises peaked at 5.25% in September and inflationary pressures eased to 3.9% in November. Well down on the figure of circa 9% at the beginning of the year.

Uncertainty has reigned both nationally and locally in the property market over the summer months, fundamentally due to 14 consecutive interest rate rises which finished when the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee held rates at 5.25% in September.  Stubborn inflationary pressures have continued but appear now to be easing, with inflation falling to 6.7% through August.  September’s figures are eagerly awaited but reports in early October that food inflation had fallen for the first time in 2 years do point to some light at the end of the tunnel.  Challenges do remain with petrol prices rising again and the ongoing supply issues caused by the continuing war in Ukraine.

The first half of 2023 for the property market both nationally and locally has not been without significant challenges fundamentally caused by the changing interest rate environment, persistent high inflation and the legacy of the disastrous Truss/Kwarteng budget of last Autumn. From a national perspective house prices have settled in many areas and started to come down. The latest 0.5% rise in the base rate will undoubtedly compound this. In May, the Halifax Price Index reported the first year on year house price fall in 14 years. The Halifax Report goes on to detail prices in May were broadly in line with prices in April of this year. Whilst it is hard to get a clear picture from a national perspective, at Ashtons we have a deeper understanding of the market in Hertfordshire and the surrounding areas.

This month we have seen the sunshine finally return to our streets, the COVID death rate has hit zero for the first time since the pandemic began and we are set to see further restrictions lifted imminently – all meaning there is much to look forward to this summer.

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